A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
